Framework for Optimizing Reliable Energy Systems and Infrastructure Given High-Uncertainty Trajectories (FORESIGHT)
Framework for Optimizing Reliable Energy Systems and Infrastructure Given High-Uncertainty Trajectories (FORESIGHT)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is helping grid planners navigate uncertainty and make more reliable, coordinated, cost-optimized, and financially-evaluated investments in system-wide electricity infrastructure.
FORESIGHT integrates probabilistic extreme impacts on power grid assets, multi-scale grid planning, and financial feasibility evaluation to enhance investment strategy across resilient bulk and distribution systems.
(Kelly Machart | Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
Planning for the future of electricity infrastructure must contend with fast-evolving and compounding uncertainties: surging data center demand, growth of inverter-based resources, extreme weather, and supply chain constraints, all while cyber and physical risks rise. Traditional resource adequacy and reliability studies struggle to keep pace or translate risk into optimized investment decisions.
Specifically, planners face a rising need for computationally efficient tools capable of assessing system reliability under stress and uncertainty. Integrated infrastructure planning across systems demands reliability assurance resources that enable rigorous evaluation under uncertain future trajectories.
The future of reliability assurance resources for cost-optimized, risk-informed, integrated grid planning
The Framework for Optimizing Reliable Energy Systems and Infrastructure Given High-Uncertainty Trajectories (FORESIGHT) initiative will develop a first-of-its-kind operational and near-term grid planning framework to systematically account for evolving probabilities of weather extremes, uncertainties in technologies and policies, and the potential financial challenges of investors.
The integrated analytics will support cost-optimized, risk-informed grid investment and operational strategy. Reliability assurance datasets, computational methods, dissemination tools, and best practices will be available to the following:
- Regulatory entities to develop reliability standards and evaluate infrastructure plans in support of the intended robustness and performance targets
- Utilities and system operators to develop their compliance plans and meet their mandate of adequacy, reliability, and cost optimization
- Investors to enhance their quantification of financial risk under stress and uncertainty when considering system-wide, risk-informed, cost-optimized investment strategies and developing insurance products
Datasets and resources
- View the FORESIGHT DataHub site for the data repository.
- View and download the FORESIGHT flyer.