Critical minerals and materials (CMMs) are minerals or materials that are considered important to the U.S. economy or national security and vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and rapidly shifting market and geopolitical conditions. At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), researchers develop and apply sophisticated supply chain models that can evaluate global supply and demand, domestic production and processing, and supplier diversity for CMMs—as well as the risks of relying on foreign imports for CMM supply or processing. 

PNNL researchers use Super Intelligent (SI)-enabled scenario modeling to reveal how a mineral or material’s strategic importance, availability, dependencies, and vulnerabilities may evolve over time. By integrating current and historical data, they can anticipate potential disruptions and inform more resilient CMM supply chain decisions.

CMM supply chain models can also be used to evaluate the impacts of different developments in the supply chain—from the introduction of new mining technologies to changes in international relations or the emergence of new technologies that demand CMMs. These models can provide direction for the most promising strategies to strengthen supply chain resilience.

Transforming Supply Chain Data into Strategic Intelligence

Although analytical and scenario models can help anticipate CMM supply chain disruptions and risks, their accuracy depends on available data and can be affected by price volatility and regulatory delays in processing. Mitigating these risks is another focus of PNNL’s supply chain model research and development.

To bolster U.S. supply chain resilience, PNNL is advancing CMM supply chain modeling by developing analytical tools capable of mapping various components of the supply chain—from initial exploration and extraction to processing and recycling. PNNL is developing dashboards to visualize CMM data and track the production, consumption, and import/export activity of key CMMs over time. 

Developed and maintained by PNNL’s Joint Global Change Research Institute, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) is a global multisector model that analyzes the interrelationships among CMMs, energy, water, economy, and other systems at various scales. Modeling with the GCAM can show how global, regional, national, and subnational CMM supply, demand, and trade factors might interact with each other to create risks and bottlenecks, along with how they can interact with other systems such as energy and water systems to create cascading risks across systems. 

With these diverse analytical, experimental, and technological capabilities, PNNL is helping guide current and future efforts to strengthen CMM supply chain resilience. 

Learn More

To learn more about CMM replacement and reduction, read the Lab’s explainer article. PNNL also conducts research in CMM replacement and CMM separations and recovery.