Below are projects being conducted within fiscal years 2025-2026.

Weather EXtremes

Technical Leads: Andrew Gettelman and Cameron Bracken
The project will develop near-term probabilistic weather extremes. Results will be coincident, high-space and -time-resolution projections of probability distributions and large-ensemble time series of key weather variables that affect energy systems. This project will combine Earth system (weather and hydrology) models with data-driven artificial intelligence approaches to represent near-term hydroclimate conditions.

EXtremes Propagation

Technical Leads: Jason Hou and Casey Burleyson
The project will develop probabilistic, weather-driven impacts on power system infrastructure. This project will translate the novel weather datasets from another project into coincident wind-solar-hydro-load time series for use in grid operations models. We will develop a weather-driven, generator-specific outage probability model that projects the likelihood of specific generators experiencing outages or deratings associated with weather drivers.

Coupled Bulk and Distribution Expansion Through Model Order Reduction for Uncertainty Propagation

Technical Leads: Eran Schweitzer and Jesse Holzer
The project aims to enhance long-term power grid planning across both bulk and distribution systems under uncertain conditions. It will develop reduction techniques for power system models to be used in a combined transmission and distribution capacity expansion framework. The models will focus on balancing computational needs with interpretability and a degree of reversibility with respect to the initial high-fidelity input.

Large-Scale Uncertainty Quantification of Power Systems

Technical Lead: Feng Pan
The project will develop new mathematics and computational techniques for quantifying the impact of uncertainties on power systems, allowing for the assessment of a significantly larger number of uncertainties than today’s modern methods. The goal of this project is to develop fast probabilistic analysis techniques that go beyond the existing sample-based methods.

Typology of Western United States Energy Infrastructure Investors, Objective Functions, and Relevant Uncertainties

Technical Lead: Brittany Tarufelli
This project will develop a detailed typology of the investment objectives of various types of private and public sector investors required to implement an energy infrastructure expansion plan in the Western Interconnection.