The Use of Dynamic Stochastic Social Behavior Models to Produce Likelihood Functions for Risk Modeling of Proliferation and Terrorist Attacks

December 1, 2008

Conference Paper

The Use of Dynamic Stochastic Social Behavior Models to Produce Likelihood Functions for Risk Modeling of Proliferation and Terrorist Attacks

Abstract

The ability to estimate the likelihood of future events based on current and historical data is essential to the decision making process of many government agencies. Successful predictions related to terror events and characterizing the risks will support development of options for countering these events. The predictive tasks involve both technical and social component models. The social components have presented a particularly difficult challenge. This paper outlines some technical considerations of this modeling activity. Both data and predictions associated with the technical and social models will likely be known with differing certainties or accuracies – a critical challenge is linking across these model domains while respecting this fundamental difference in certainty level. This paper will describe the technical approach being taken to develop the social model and identification of the significant interfaces between the technical and social modeling in the context of analysis of diversion of nuclear material.

Revised: October 27, 2009 | Published: December 1, 2008

Citation

Young J., S.E. Thompson, A.J. Brothers, P.D. Whitney, G.A. Coles, C.L. Henderson, and K.E. Wolf, et al. 2008. The Use of Dynamic Stochastic Social Behavior Models to Produce Likelihood Functions for Risk Modeling of Proliferation and Terrorist Attacks. In International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference: PSAM 9, May 18-23, 2008, Hong Kong, China, edited by TM Kao, E Zio, V Ho. Hong Kong:Edge Publication Group. PNNL-SA-59107.