We consider the development of harmful algae blooms (HABs) in a lake with uncertain nutrients inflow. Two general frameworks, Fokker-Planck equation and the PDF methods, are developed to quantify the resultant concentration uncertainty of various algae groups, via deriving a deterministic equation of their joint probability density function (PDF). A computational example is examined to study the evolution of cyanobacteria (the blue-green algae) and the impacts of initial concentration and inflow-outflow ratio.
Revised: September 4, 2013 |
Published: January 15, 2013
Citation
Wang P., D.M. Tartakovsky, and A.M. Tartakovsky. 2013.Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes. In Modelling and Simulation in Fluid Dynamics in Porous Media: Workshop on Fluid Dynamics in Porous Media, September 12-14, 2011, Coimbra, Portugal. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, edited by JA Ferreira, et al, 28, 99-108. New York:Springer.PNNL-SA-87675.doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6