PNNL

Abstract

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) consists of 5 U.S DOE national laboratories collaborating to develop a framework for predicting the risks associated with carbon sequestration. The approach taken by NRAP is to divide the system into components, including injection target reservoirs, wellbores, natural pathways including faults and fractures, groundwater and the atmosphere. Next, develop a detailed, physics and chemistry-based model of each component. Using the results of the detailed models, develop efficient, simplified models, termed reduced order models (ROM) for each component. Finally, integrate the component ROMs into a system model that calculates risk profiles for the site. This report details the development of the Groundwater Geochemistry ROM for the Edwards Aquifer at PNNL. The Groundwater Geochemistry ROM for the Edwards Aquifer uses a Wellbore Leakage ROM developed at LANL as input. The detailed model, using the STOMP simulator, covers a 5x8 km area of the Edwards Aquifer near San Antonio, Texas. The model includes heterogeneous hydraulic properties, and equilibrium, kinetic and sorption reactions between groundwater, leaked CO2 gas, brine, and the aquifer carbonate and clay minerals. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate 1024 samples of input parameters. For each of these input samples, the STOMP simulator was used to predict the flux of CO2 to the atmosphere, and the volume, length and width of the aquifer where pH was less than the MCL standard, and TDS, arsenic, cadmium and lead exceeded MCL standards. In order to decouple the Wellbore Leakage ROM from the Groundwater Geochemistry ROM, the response surface was transformed to replace Wellbore Leakage ROM input parameters with instantaneous and cumulative CO2 and brine leakage rates. The most sensitive parameters proved to be the CO2 and brine leakage rates from the well, with equilibrium coefficients for calcite and dolomite, as well as the number of illite and kaolinite sorption sites proving to be of secondary importance. The Groundwater Geochemistry ROM was developed using nonlinear regression to fit the response surface with a quadratic polynomial. The goodness of fit was excellent for the CO2 flux to the atmosphere, and very good for predicting the volumes of groundwater exceeding the pH, TDS, As, Cd and Pb threshold values.