PNNL

Abstract

On February 29th 2012, China published its new National Ambient Air Quality Standard (CH-NAAQS) aiming at revising the standards and measurements for both gaseous pollutants including ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2), and also particle pollutants including PM10 and PM2.5. In order to understand the air pollution status regarding this new standard, the integrated MM5/CMAQ modeling system was applied over Yangtze River Delta (YRD) within this study to examine the criteria gaseous pollutants listed in the new CH-NAAQS. Sensitivity simulations were also conducted to assess the responses of gaseous pollutants under 8 different sector-dependent emission reduction scenarios in order to evaluate the potential control strategies. 2006 was selected as the simulation year in order to review the air quality condition at the beginning of China’s 11th Five-Year-Plan (FYP, from 2006 to 2010), and also compared with air quality status in 2010 as the end of 11th FYP to probe into the effectiveness of the national emission control efforts. Base case simulation showed distinct seasonal variation for gaseous pollutants: SO2, and NO2 were found to have higher surface concentrations in winter while O3 was found to have higher concentrations in spring and summer than other seasons. According to the analyses focused on 3 megacities within YRD, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, we found different air quality conditions among the cities: NO2 was the primary pollutant that having the largest number of days exceeding the CH-NAAQS daily standard (80 µg/m3) in Shanghai (59 days) and Nanjing (27 days); SO2 was the primary pollutant with maximum number of days exceeding daily air quality standard (150 µg/m3) in Hangzhou (28 days), while O3 exceeding the daily maximum 8-hour standard (160 µg/m3) for relatively fewer days in all the three cities (9 days in Shanghai, 14 days in Nanjing, and 11 days in Hangzhou). Simulation results from predefined potential applicable emission control scenarios suggested significant air quality improvements from emission reduction: 90% of SO2 emission removed from power plant in YRD would be able to reduce more than 85% of SO2 pollution, 85% NOx emission reduction from power plant would reduce more than 60% of NO2 pollution, in terms of reducing the number of days exceeding daily air quality standard. NOx emission reduction from transportation and industry were also found to effectively reduce NO2 pollution but less efficient than emission control from power plants. We also found that multi-pollutants emission control including both NOx and VOC would be a better strategy than independent NOx control over YRD which is China’s 12th Five-Year-Plan (from 2011 to 2015), because O3 pollution would be increased as a side effect of NOx control and counteract NO2 pollution reduction benefit.