September 22, 2026
Journal Article

Observations of offshore low-level jets off the U.S. East Coast reveal systematic biases in ERA5 and HRRR

Abstract

Low-level jets (LLJs)—wind speed maxima typically occurring a few hundred meters above the surface—are common off the U.S. East Coast and influence many atmospheric processes with societal importance, including wind energy variability, cloud formation, aviation safety, and search-and-rescue. However, their vertical structure and frequency remain poorly quantified due to limited offshore observations. This study presents new scanning Doppler lidar and infrared spectroradiometer data from the 2024 summer deployment of an offshore barge during the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 3. These coupled wind and temperature profiles provide unprecedented resolution to assess LLJ behavior and model performance. LLJs occurred in over 21\% of observed profiles, with peak winds typically near 300 m. Both ERA5 and HRRR analysis underestimate jet wind speeds and misrepresent the boundary layer thermal structure. These results highlight persistent model biases and the critical need for high-resolution offshore observations.

Published: September 22, 2026

Citation

Bodini N., S. Letizia, B. Adler, D. Turner, R. Krishnamurthy, A. Scholbrock, and D. Jager, et al. 2026. Observations of offshore low-level jets off the U.S. East Coast reveal systematic biases in ERA5 and HRRR. Geophysical Research Letters 53, no. 13:Art. No. e2025GL119969. PNNL-SA-218001. doi:10.1029/2025GL119969

Research topics