PNNL

Abstract

We intercompare a series of multi-year simulations with a coupled regional chemistry-climate model for east Asia to assess the relative importance of direct and indirect (Type I) effects of anthropogenic sulfate on the climate of the region. Both direct and indirect aerosol effects induce a negative radiative forcing that results in a cooling of the surface and in a decrease of precipitation. Under present day sulfur emissions, the direct aerosol effects prevail during the cold season, while the indirect effects dominate in the warm season (when cloudiness is maximum over the region). When both the direct and indirect effects are included, the surface cooling varies in the range of -0.1 to over -1 K throughout the region and extended areas of statistically significant cooling are found in all seasons except winter. The indirect effects largely dominate in inhibiting precipitation, especially during the summer. When doubling the sulfur emission, the direct effects are substantially strengthened, while the indirect effects are only marginally affected. This indicates that the indirect effects over the region might be asymptotically approaching their maximum efficiency. Overall, the indirect effects appear necessary to explain the observed temperature record over some regions of China, at least in the warm season. A number of uncertainties need to be addressed, such as due to Type II indirect effects, modeling of the relationship between aerosol concentration and cloud optical properties, and contribution of aerosols other than anthropogenic sulfate.