This paper examines radiative forcing and global-mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18 – 0.26 °C across the nine participating models.
Published: March 13, 2021
Citation
Smith S.J., J. Chateau, K.R. Dorheim, L. Drouet, O. Durand-Lasserve, O. Fricko, and S. Fujimori, et al. 2020.Impact of Methane and Black Carbon Mitigation on Forcing and Temperature: A Multi-Model Scenario Analysis.Climatic Change 163.PNNL-SA-149757.doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3