PNNL

Because of the significantly higher efficiencies of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) compared to the internal combustion engines they are replacing, PHEVs may be an economic means of reducing direct CO2 emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy in place that limits CO2 emissions on the electric generation sector, the impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall US CO2 emissions is not as clear. Depending on the fuel mix for expanded electric generation, there may be just a slight reduction in total emissions, or conceivably even an overall increase. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the PNNL MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total US CO2 emissions. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50-60% of the market for passenger and light duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modeled here results in 6,200-7,400 MtCO2 of additional cost effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy over the period 2005-2050. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector coupled with climate policies such as those examined here can also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20-30% by 2050 compared to today’s levels.