In preparation for the 26th Conference of Parties, countries have submitted updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2021. Here we estimate probabilistic temperature outcomes in 2100 for five emissions scenarios with and without the updated NDCs, accounting for the improved climate science understanding, net-zero pledges, the impacts of COVID-19, current sectoral policies, and the latest technological trends in addition to the updated climate pledges. We find that compared with the 2015 NDCs, the updated pledges suggest strengthening ambition through 2030 and thus provide a stronger near-term foundation to deliver on the long-term Paris goals.
Published: October 4, 2022
Citation
Ou Y., G.C. Iyer, L. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, A.A. Fawcett, N. Hultman, and J. McFarland, et al. 2021.Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C? Increased ambition and implementation are essential.Science 374, no. 6568:693-695.PNNL-SA-163608.doi:10.1126/science.abl8976