Limited supplies of critical raw materials could disrupt ongoing shifts in energy technology and power generation
As power generation technologies advance and demand grows, the question remains how the availability of raw materials will affect future development and use of technology in the global energy system.
(Photo: U.S. Department of Energy)
The demand for energy is growing—and so is the technology supporting it. Last year, batteries drove growth in the energy sector and became the focus of rapidly advancing research aimed at boosting grid storage capacity. However, future development of power generation technologies could be affected by a key factor: material supply. As power generation technologies advance and demand grows, how the availability of raw materials will affect the evolution and use of technology in the global energy system remains an important question.
A recent study published in Cell Reports: Sustainability by researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) shines a light on this challenge. As the world continues to demand more energy technologies, the pressure on material resources is set to escalate.
The study, led by JGCRI scientists Yang Qiu and Gokul Iyer, found that if material supply growth remains constrained at historical rates, the global power sector could fall short of meeting expected electricity demand. Qiu, a postdoctoral researcher at JGCRI and the lead author on the paper, says, “This work marks the beginning of understanding how material supply availability will affect the development of different energy technologies in the global energy system.”
Qiu and Iyer’s work relies heavily on PNNL’s Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). GCAM simulates interactions within and among different sectors, including energy, economy, water, land, and climate systems. This team is the first to incorporate materials into the GCAM framework to model the effects of their supplies and demands on the power sector. This study considered the future availability of twelve key materials crucial for energy technologies, with plans to expand to other sectors, such as building and transportation.
If material supply growth continues at historical rates, the global power sector could soon face a hurdle. Under this scenario, the global financial and infrastructure investments needed to meet rising energy demand could fall short by 12 percent through 2050. This gap could also lead to electricity price increases of 14 percent–41 percent worldwide compared to a scenario with unconstrained material supplies. These findings suggest that without proactive measures to boost material availability, the global power sector may struggle to keep pace with future demand.
These challenges may be even more pronounced with the increased adoption of renewable energy sources. These technologies require a broader range of materials, and in larger quantities, than fossil-based systems. The need for critical minerals like copper, lithium, and other rare earth elements is acutely persistent.
Iyer, an Earth scientist at JGCRI, underscores the complexities of securing these materials: “Some energy technologies can be very mineral-intensive. The ability of some of the mineral supply chains to be responsive to global energy demands could be affected by many factors, including geopolitics, mine development, and environmental and societal considerations. Additionally, some of these minerals are found in very discrete pockets across the globe.”
Qiu and Iyer's work suggests that increasing material availability—for example, through improved mineral recycling—could significantly ease supply chain issues, helping to mitigate higher energy prices. Qiu explains, “Copper and aluminum already boast high recycling rates, reaching about 60 percent and 70 percent, respectively. However, many other minerals used in some energy technologies have extremely low recycling rates, such as lithium, which sits only at about 1 percent.”
Although it wasn’t explicitly incorporated in their model, evidence suggests higher recycling rates can significantly impact the material supply constraint outcomes of this study. “But it may take time to see evidence of this because critical mineral recycling technology is still in its early stages,” says Qiu, “It’s a field that’s evolving slowly because of limited access to large quantities of these rare materials which take time to accumulate.”
Looking ahead, energy demands will only continue to rise. To meet this demand, expanding material availability will likely be an essential factor for meeting global need. However, if material supplies can grow at a faster rate—through strategies like recycling or tapping into new sources—the results of this study indicate that challenges to meet demand could be largely mitigated.
The new modeling capabilities developed by Qiu and Iyer lay the foundation for a comprehensive analysis of material markets and supply chains and their interactions with the energy system. The study represents an important step forward, but there’s more work to be done. “We’ve only just gotten started,” says Iyer. “This work focuses on the supply needs for the power sector, but we also need to consider electricity transmission, the transport sector, and material demands outside of energy.”
Once scientists have a better grasp of how material supply impacts other sectors, they can refine their understanding of the co-evolution between the energy sector and material markets. This, in turn, can enhance operations and planning across sectors as global demands shift and evolve.
This study was conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and funded by the Department of Energy Office of Science’s MultiSector Dynamics, Earth, and Environmental System Modeling Program. It was recently selected by Cell Reports: Sustainability as a cover article for its October 2024 issue.
Published: November 20, 2024