PNNL

Abstract

Vanguard efforts in forecasting volcanic eruptions are turning to physics-based models, 10 which require quantitative estimates of magma conditions during pre-eruptive storage. Below active arc volcanoes, observed magma storage depths vary widely (~0–20 km) and are commonly assumed to represent levels of neutral buoyancy. Here, we show that geophysically observed magma depths (6 ±3 km) are greater than depths of neutral buoyancy, ruling out this commonly assumed control. Observed depths are instead consistent with predicted depths of water degassing. Intrinsically wetter magmas degas water and crystallize deeper than dry magmas, resulting in viscosity increases that lead to deeper stalling of ascending magma. The water-depth relationship provides a critical new constraint for forecasting models by connecting depth of eruption initiation to its volatile fuel.