July 9, 2025
Journal Article

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

Abstract

This paper focuses on the role of electricity in deep decarbonization and high electrification of the U.S. economy. Its data are the results of 17 different expert modeling analyses done as a part of study number 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). The 17 participating models use diverse approaches with harmonized scenario assumptions. The paper presents the evolution of the electricity sector in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, as identified by each participating team. Characteristics of the electricity sector presented and discussed in this paper include emissions associated with electricity production, electricity load growth and sources of demand, and future U.S. electricity fleet composition, which highlight areas of agreement and uncertainty in decarbonization pathways. Key differences include the extent of future demand growth across end-use sectors and the composition of the future electricity-generating fleet. Model results generally align with the findings that 1) the electricity sector decarbonizes faster than the overall economy, 2) electricity demand will grow faster in an economy achieving net-zero, and 3) wind and solar generation will have an increasingly larger role.

Published: July 9, 2025

Citation

Gao R., T. Mai, S.S. Mousavi, C. Rossmann, M.T. Binsted, J. Bistline, and G. Blanford, et al. 2025. Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study. Energy and Climate Change 6:Art. No. 100196. PNNL-SA-205143. doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100196