PNNL

Abstract

THIS WORK WAS FUNDED ON NON-FEDERAL PROJECTS AND NO DOE OFFICE OF SCIENCE, OTHER DOE, OTHER FEDERAL, OR PNNL OVERHEAD FUNDING WAS BEING USED The United States has committed to a 2030 nationally determined contribution (NDC) of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels, and a critical next step is to determine a 2035 NDC aligned with its long-term goal of net-zero by 2050 and a 1.5°C trajectory. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, and assess additional policies across all sectors. We find that existing policies can reduce GHG emissions by 45% by 2035. We also develop a high-ambition All-In scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies across the economy, and assess maximum achievable reductions of 65% by 2035, keeping the United States on track toward its net-zero target.