PNNL

Abstract

U.S. residential and commercial buildings currently use about 39 quadrillion Btu (quads) of energy per year and account for 0.6 gigatonnes (GT) of carbon emitted to the atmosphere (38% of U.S. total emissions of 1.6 GT and approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic emissions of 6.7 GT). U.S. government buildings-related energy efficiency research and implementation programs are expected to reduce energy consumption in buildings. This has value both in reducing carbon emissions that result in global warming and adapting the U.S. residential and commercial building stock to a potentially warmer world. Analyses conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that the world’s climate could warm relative to1990 by 0.4°C to1.2°C by the year 2030 and by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by the end of the 21st century. This paper shows that the effect of the regional projected warming on energy consumption in U.S. residential and commercial buildings is a net decrease ranging from about 5% in 2020 to as much as 20% in 2080, but with an increase of as much as 25% in space cooling. Buildings-related energy efficiency programs should reduce energy consumption in buildings by more than 2 quads in 2020, which would more than offset the growth in space cooling due to climate and growth in building stock combined, and would be worth between $28 and $33 billion.