PNNL

Abstract

There is a wide body of research focused on the potential of advanced technologies to reduce energy consumption in buildings. How such improvements relate to global climate change, however, is less clear, due to the complexity of the climate change issue, and the implications for the energy system as a whole that need to be considered. This study uses MiniCAM, an integrated assessment model, to examine the contributions of several suites of advanced buildings technologies in meeting national carbon emissions reduction targets, as part of a global policy to mitigate climate change by stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450 ppmv. Focal technology areas include building shells, heat pumps for HVAC and water heating applications, solid-state lighting, and miscellaneous electric equipment. We find that advanced heat pumps and energy-efficient miscellaneous electric equipment show the greatest potential to reduce aggregate building sector future energy consumption and policy costs, but that all focal areas are important for reducing energy consumption. Because of assumed availability of low-cost, emissions-reduced electricity generation technologies in these scenarios, heat pumps are especially important for facilitating fuel-switching towards electricity. Buildings sector energy consumption is reduced by 28% and policy costs are reduced by 17% in a scenario with advanced technologies in all focal areas.