PNNL

Abstract

The use of predictive analytics to model terrorist rhetoric is highly instrumental in developing a strategy to deter terrorism. Traditional (e.g. Cold-War) deterrence methods are ineffective with terrorist groups such as al Qa’ida. Terrorists typically regard the prospect of death or loss of property as acceptable consequences of their struggle. Deterrence by threat of punishment is therefore fruitless. On the other hand, isolating terrorists from the community that may sympathize with their cause can have a decisive deterring outcome. Without the moral backing of a supportive audience, terrorism cannot be successfully framed as a justifiable political strategy and recruiting is curtailed. Ultimately, terrorism deterrence is more effectively enforced by exerting influence to neutralize the communicative reach of terrorists.