January 7, 2025
Journal Article

Taking stock of nationally determined contributions: Continued ratcheting of ambition is critical to limit global warming to 1.5°C

Abstract

As part of 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that outline countries’ goals and associated climate actions toward reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through 2025 or 2030. The focus of this year’s United Nations Conference of Parties (COP28) will be on the Global Stocktake (GST), which is a process defined in the 2015 Paris Agreement to take stock of the progress made by countries toward achieving their pledges and the collective progress toward the long-term goals of the Agreement.1,2 While assessment of progress made so far will be the central focus of the GST process, a key objective of process will also be to identify high priority areas to further ratchet or enhance ambition in order to better align with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals of limiting global temperature change to less than 1.5°C. This comment provides input toward COP28 and the GST process by summarizing key insights from previous studies about the progress made in the collective ambition embodied in countries’ NDCs and highlighting three important policy areas for decisionmakers to focus their ratcheting efforts in 2023 to improve the alignment of countries’ pledges with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goals, namely, non-CO2 gases, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), and deforestation.

Published: January 7, 2025

Citation

Iyer G.C., R. Cui, J.A. Edmonds, A. Fawcett, A. Fawcett, N. Hultman, and H.C. McJeon, et al. 2023. Taking stock of nationally determined contributions: Continued ratcheting of ambition is critical to limit global warming to 1.5°C. One Earth 6, no. 9:1089-1092. PNNL-ACT-SA-10767. doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.08.019