PNNL

Abstract

Recent studies suggest the observed seasonal delay of rainfall over the Sahel is mainly driven by anthropogenic aerosol forcing, which features a robust east–west contrasting changes in recent decades, with negative and positive top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave radiative forcing in South and East Asia (SA&EA) and in North America and Europe (NA&EU), respectively. Their individual effects on the Sahel rainfall annual cycle remain unclear. Here, by designing idealized sensitivity experiments based on Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2), we show that both negative radiative forcing over SA&EA and positive radiative forcing over NA&EU contribute to the delayed phase and enhanced amplitude of Sahel rainfall annual cycle. To understand the underlying physical processes, both the convective quasi-equilibrium (CQE) and atmospheric energetic frameworks are utilized. Both frameworks can well explain the seasonal delay in the rainfall annual cycle over the Sahel under the regional radiative forcings, with the CQE framework showing stronger explanatory power. Based on the insights from both frameworks, we conducted a moisture budget analysis and found that the negative radiative forcing over SA&EA causes an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation, which transports more moisture to the Sahel. As the anomalous anticyclone is stronger in summer and fall compared to spring, rainfall is delayed in the Sahel. Under the influence of the positive radiative forcing over NA&EU, more warming in the northern hemisphere causes northward transport of moisture to the northern tropics associated with the cross-equatorial transport of energy. The moisture transport increases relativehumidity over the Sahel and enhances the effective atmospheric heat capacity that delays the seasonal rainfall.