PNNL

Abstract

The food processing sector is a large, energy-consuming and CO2-emitting industrial sector. The sector was estimated to account for 6% of US industrial CO2 emissions in 2020. The sector uses significant amounts of fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity to perform a range of operations such as baking, drying, and refrigeration. Additionally, the sector is tightly linked to the agriculture and land use sectors. In this analysis, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a coupled, energy-economy-agriculture-land-use-water-climate systems model, to examine the role of the food processing sector in the EMF37 2050 US net-zero CO2 scenario. We also explore the implications for US food consumption, consumer food prices, and land-use allocation. To better understand the sensitivity of our results to alternative developments, we assess multiple sensitivity scenarios for the US and other regions, with a focus on varied food processing energy use intensity pathways. We find that along the EMF37 US net-zero path, the food processing sector electrifies majority of its process heat. We also find that the industry phases-down natural gas use and completely phases-out coal. Additionally, we observe a marginal decrease in US food consumption per capita relative to our reference scenario. This primarily occurs due to the increase in consumer food prices resulting from increased demand for purpose-grown biomass crops, which compete with food crops for land resources. Finally, cumulative energy savings of 4.2 EJ were achieved from 2020-2050 if the US reduces its food processing intensity.