PNNL

Abstract

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of fossil liquids fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. Here we model alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. We model three bio-jet production pathways, soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet and Fisher-Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and gasoline alongside the bio-jet. We find that, without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase) and lower demand (ranging from -14% to -43%) by 2050. We find that corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices . However, scenarios with competing demands for corn ethanol outside aviation may cause increased pressure on bio-jet and aviation fuel prices with consequent reductions in aviation fuel demand.