A Multi-Model Assessment of Energy and Emissions for India’s Transport Sector through 2050
Poonam Nagar Koti
Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of energy consumption and GHG emissions in India. Modeling of energy use and emissions is important for understanding of future trends and informing policymaking. This paper provides baseline projections of energy consumption and emission estimates for India’s road transport sector up to 2050. Based on the results from five energy-economic modeling teams, the paper explores the developments in India’s passenger and freight road transport. This inter-model comparison study explores changes in the transportation modal shift and the resulting changes in energy consumption, CO2 and particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions. Energy consumption by freight transport is projected to grow faster than by passenger vehicles. Under the reference scenario, PM2.5 and CO2 emissions will continue to grow, creating challenges in meeting long-term climate mitigation goals; passenger transport will emit an increasingly larger share of transport PM2.5 emissions. This paper then attempts to assess the underlying assumptions, data uncertainties and data gaps in the baseline projections for India’s road transport.