March 27, 2024
Journal Article
Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets
Abstract
Climate change is opening access to offshore Arctic oil and gas resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial-temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction targets. We find that in a “Fossil-fueled development” scenario (i.e., SSP5), future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8-2.6 EJ/year on average to oil and gas markets, depending on future sea-ice conditions, but is not likely to affect global oil and gas market. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.Published: March 27, 2024