The ability to support creation and parallel analysis of competing scenarios is perhaps the greatest single challenge for today’s intelligence analysis systems. Dempster-Shafer theory provides an evidentiary reasoning methodology for scenario construction and analysis that offers potential advantages when compared to other approaches such as Bayesian nets as it places less conceptual load on the analyst by not requiring the complete specification of joint probability distributions. This paper presents a method that can further reduce the conceptual load by taking advantage of hierarchically structured indicators. We present a novel interface for this layered, Dempster-Shafer evidentiary reasoning approach and demonstrate the utility of this interface with reference to analysis problems focusing on comparing distinct hypotheses.
Revised: June 7, 2007 |
Published: May 23, 2007
Citation
Sanfilippo A.P., B. Baddeley, C. Posse, and P.D. Whitney. 2007.A Layered Dempster-Shafer Approach to Scenario Construction and Analysis. In IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics 2007 (ISI 2007), May 23-24 2007, New Brunswick, NJ USA, 95-102. Piscataway, New Jersey:Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.PNNL-SA-53957.