PNNL

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of the relationship between income and pollutant emission controls as parameterized in the ObjECTS MiniCAM integrated assessment model. Future scenarios for energy-related emissions of nitrous oxide (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are presented along with the methodology used to parameterize this relationship. We use a “pseudo-Kuznets” approach where the level of emission control is assumed to vary with per-capita income. No explicit assumption is, therefore, made about the relationship between income and emissions — emissions are the result of driving forces, such as economic activity level, and energy combustion technology in addition to emission controls. Emission projections depend both on the assumptions for when emissions controls are implemented and the stringency of those controls. We suggest that historical analysis of the relationship between income and emission controls might be particularly useful in informing the selection of parameters that control when emission controls are implemented. Historical analysis is likely to be less helpful in informing the selection of parameters for the future levels of control, however, particularly at future times when parameter values are well outside the range of historical experience.