PNNL

Abstract

This paper illustrates that stabilization of radiative forcing at 3.4 W/m2 will require substantial changes in the energy sector, changes that will ultimately encompass every country. The scenario presented here envisions a world where increasing prosperity results in the majority of global emissions originating from non-Annex 1 countries by 2020. The U.S. economy grows five-fold over the century, leads to emissions increases, absent mitigation actions, of only 35 percent, in large part because of substantial advances in energy supply and demand technologies. Even in an optimal, global strategy, stabilization at 3.4 W/m2 still requires a transformation of the U.S. energy system that begins almost immediately. Delays in emissions reductions by non-Annex 1 countries increase the speed and extent of this transformation.