PNNL

Abstract

The impact of the uncertainty in injection height of anthropogenic emissions is examined using a global aerosol-climate model. We find a large impact of the assumed effective emission height on near-surface concentration and vertical profile of SO2. The global range of SO2 concentration over land (ocean) due to uncertainty in industrial (international shipping) emission injection height is 81% (76%), relative to the average concentration, whereas the relative range of secondary sulfate is 8% (10%) and primary aerosols such as black carbon and primary organic matter is 53% (28%). During 2005–2014, uncertainty in modeled SO2 and aerosols related to injection heights became increasingly important over East Asia and South Asia. This study reveals different impacts of emission injection height uncertainty on modeling of gases, primary aerosols and secondary aerosols and helps with interpretation of discrepancies between model, measurements and satellite retrievals.