PNNL

Abstract

Natural gas plays a key role in many energy systems today and understanding its future evolution is critical in the context of long-term energy system transitions. This study analyzes the long-term evolution of global natural gas trade and associated infrastructure by enhancing the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an integrated multi-sectoral model, to explicitly represent traded pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG). We then study their future evolution under a range of scenarios representing alternative economy-wide transitions, trade infrastructure, and trade barriers. Both traded LNG and pipeline gas may grow over the coming decades, with traded LNG making up a dominant share by mid-century, as it can be flexibly shipped over widespread regions. Cumulative global investments in LNG and pipeline infrastructure range from 360-1470 MTPA by 2050 across scenarios. Limited trade and transitioning to a low carbon economy reduce the scale of new gas trade capacity over the coming decades but increase underutilized capacity relative to the Reference scenario.