PNNL

Abstract

Simulated primary organic aerosols (POA), as well as other particulates and trace gases, in the vicinity of Mexico City are evaluated using measurements collected during the 2006 Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO) field campaigns. Since the emission inventories and dilution will affect predictions of total organic matter and consequently total particulate matter, our objective is to assess the uncertainties in predicted POA before testing and evaluating the performance of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) treatments. Carbon monoxide (CO) is well simulated on most days both over the city and downwind, indicating that transport and mixing processes were usually consistent with the meteorological conditions observed during MILAGRO. Predicted and observed elemental carbon (EC) in the city was similar, but larger errors occurred at remote locations since the CO/EC emission ratios in the national emission inventory were lower than in the metropolitan emission inventory. Components of organic aerosols derived from Positive Matrix Factorization and data from several Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer instruments deployed both at ground sites and on research aircraft are used to evaluate the model. Predicted POA was consistently lower than the measured organic matter at the ground sites, which is consistent with the expectation that SOA should be a large fraction of the total organic matter mass. A much better agreement was found when predicted POA was compared with the sum of "primary anthropogenic" and "primary biomass burning" components on days with relatively low biomass burning, suggesting that the overall magnitude of primary organic particulates released was reasonable. The predicted POA was greater than the total observed organic matter when the aircraft flew directly downwind of large fires, suggesting that biomass burning emission estimates from some large fires may be too high. Predicted total observed organic carbon (TOOC) was also analyzed to assess how emission inventory estimates of volatile organic compounds may impact predictions of SOA.