The US Navy has over 3500 gas turbine engines used throughout the surface fleet for propulsion and the generation of electrical power. The US Navy, Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) Marine Gas Turbine Information System (MGTIS) Program archives engines’ historical operating and removal data for use in logistics and lifecycle planning. One analysis conducted by the MGTIS Program is to project the number of engine removals for the next ten years and determine engine down times between removals. To support this effort, NAVSEA currently uses a software program, implemented in FORTRAN in the early 1970s. The program runs on a mainframe computer and is inconvenient to use. In addition, because it does not account for certain important factors (such as decommissioning), various manual manipulations and subjective judgments are needed to make the program fit the current needs of the MGTIS program. Finally, the underlying statistical methods employed by the FORTRAN program are not well documented or understood. Thus there was a need for a new program that is more convenient to use and that is based on a defensible scientific methodology. This program is the result of the research and development conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to develop algorithms to forecast engine replacements and the implementation of a new user-friendly software program to enable the NAVSEA user to formulate forecasts that support their logistics needs. Benefits of this program are the following
Revised: November 14, 2005 |
Published: September 29, 2005