PNNL

Abstract

This study analyzes the options for meeting power demand in the Brazilian power sector through the year 2015. Three policy cases are constructed to test economic and environmental policy measures against a baseline: advanced technologies scenario, environmental control scenario and carbon (C) elimination scenario. Least-cost modeling simulated these scenarios through changes in emissions fees and caps, costs for advanced technologies, demand side efficiency, and clean energy supplies. Results show that, in the absence of alternative policies, new additions to Brazil’s electric power sector will shift rapidly from hydroelectricity to combined-cycle natural gas plants. When the cost of environmental impacts are incorporated in the price of power, the least-cost mix of electric power generation technology could change in other ways. In all scenarios, energy efficiency and cogeneration play an important role in the least-cost power solution. Saving electricity through increased efficiency offsets the needs for new supply and has enormous potential in Brazil’s industrial sector. Efficiency also reduces the environmental burden associated with electricity production and transmission, without compromising the quality of the services demanded by end users. Interesting enough, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will remain relatively low under almost every conceivable scenario.