PNNL

Abstract

To stop the current global warming crisis, energy and non-energy systems must be decarbonized. Authors have proposed different tools that help policymakers assess carbon reduction policies and their impacts. However, several of the Energy System Models (ESM) that account for hourly resolution of variable renewable sources usually lack the integration of the energy systems with others, such as the Land Use and Forestry or Water sector. Models that account for such integration are known as Integrated Assessment Models (IAM). However, due to their complexities, IAM are usually solved in 5-year time steps without representation of hourly variability of renewable sources. This research seeks to address this gap by linking two different models. The H2RES energy system model is soft-linked to the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), one of the most recognized IAM. The soft-linking approach provides demand and capacity investment levels from GCAM into H2RES to assess the impacts of renewable variability on decarbonization strategies as well as the level of Power-to-X technologies required. The proposed approach is developed to analyze the Chilean Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. Results from GCAM indicate that the Chilean NDC can be achieved by 2050, even when coal is phased-out by 2030. However, when assessing results with the H2RES model, a higher level of electricity generation is observed due to hours of peak renewable energy availability, reaching large levels of excess of electricity (up to 20%). Additionally, when no flexibility options are allowed (Power-to-X technologies), H2RES is not able to find configurations that balance supply and demand. Therefore, results indicate that proper integration of the power system with the transport, industry, and buildings sectors could lead to decarbonization strategies with higher levels of electrification of final demand sectors, resulting in a more efficient energy system in Chile