PNNL

The Providing Research and End-user Products to Accelerate Readiness and Environmental Security (PREPARES) project establishes and demonstrates causal linkages between climate or weather conditions and human domain systems by combining quantitative geophysical data with qualitative data reflecting conflict-stability dynamics, human well-being, demographics and migration patterns, and other social outcomes of interest.

COLLABORATION

Initiated and funded in July 2023 by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and executed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), PREPARES demonstrates how climate and weather impact human domain systems, and translates these impacts to inform military mission planning. This Department of Defense applied research project is collaborating closely with Army operational users as the primary community for the capabilities being developed.

APPROACH

The PREPARES approach integrates top-down scientific inquiry with bottom-up operational focus.

1. The project merges the best in climate or weather forecasting with rigorous human domain systems and social science modeling. Efforts combine quantitative geophysical data—for example, hydrology, power grid analysis, ocean chemistry, and other fields—with qualitative data reflecting conflict-stability dynamics, human well-being, demographics and migration patterns, and other social outcomes of interest.
2. PREPARES aims to meet the Army operational users where and how they operate. The project is working closely with these users to understand their current modes of operation, the types of missions they perform, the data they collect, and the analyses they perform.

CASE STUDIES

PREPARES is harvesting and enriching existing operational reporting data and then feeding it into a robust data management and search system. There are currently several studies being detailed and identified by Army operational users to drive capability development. Case study teams are identifying key operational questions, gathering data, and integrating modeling. The focus is on scientifically demonstrating causal linkages between climate and weather forecasts and their impacts on human domain systems. There is also a special emphasis on translating these insights and capabilities into robust, scalable, and repeatable engineered decision-support tools and an overall framework for general reuse by other national security members, rather than producing mere one-off analytical results.

	Taiwan: Water Stress, Political Stability, and Strategic Deterrence   Tools to understand climate, water, and power-related risks to the Taiwanese semiconductor and agricultural sectors, and outcomes relevant to U.S. national security.
	Philippines: Environmental Change, Fisheries, and Strategic Competition   Tools to project fisheries changes and outcomes relevant to U.S. national security in and around the Philippines.
	Northern India: Climate-Induced Migration Dynamics  Tools to model natural disasters, migration dynamics, and social cohesion in the Indian Himalayan Region.
	Somalia: Climate Stress and Rebel Governance  Tools to model droughts and floods, human security, and al-Shabaab authority in Somalia.