Innovative modeling to explore how human and natural system landscapes in the United States co-evolve in response to short-term shocks and long-term influences
(Composite image by Donald Jorgensen | Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
The Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project couples open-source human and Earth system models from city to regional to national scales within the U.S. to project future vulnerabilities and resilience to extreme events, as well as long-term changes. IM3 researchers have worked to develop new models that can couple to one another and previously existing models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model, or GCAM.
Currently, IM3 is studying the influences of future heat waves on urban microclimates and the supply, demand, and operations of the regional electric grids; the effect of future droughts and land use and land cover change on surface and groundwater management across the U.S.; and the potential benefits of drought adaptations in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western U.S., including the use of financial risk instruments.
Recent work includes exploring how inflow forecasts influence the water released by dams, improving precipitation simulations over the central U.S., and comparing the impacts of building sector model resolution on projections of electricity consumption in buildings.