Systems Engineer
Systems Engineer


Marshall Wise is a system engineer at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's (PNNL’s) Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in College Park, MD. Originally joining PNNL in 1990, Mr. Wise has over 30 years of experience in economic and engineering modeling and analysis of energy, land use, and environmental systems. He serves as the principal investigator (PI) for the Global Change Intersectoral Modeling System project funded by the Department of Energy’s (DOE's) Office of Science, and he is on the core model development team for JGCRI’s flagship Global Change Analysis Model. Mr. Wise is also the PI for projects analyzing bioenergy in the context of global agriculture and energy for the DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office and for the Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality. From 1998 to 2002, Mr. Wise served as a manager in ICF Consulting’s private sector electric power consulting practice, where he modeled and analyzed future electric power market conditions for several leading private energy companies, international banks, and Wall Street credit rating agencies.

Research Interest

  • Economic and optimization modeling
  • Electricity markets
  • Energy technology
  • Bioenergy


  • MS, Industrial Engineering, Virginia Tech
  • BS, Industrial Engineering, Virginia Tech



  • Zhao, Xin, Marshall Wise, Stephanie Waldhoff, G. Page Kyle, Jonathan Huster, Christopher Ramig, Lauren Rafelski, Pralit Patel, Katherine Calvin. (2022). “The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling,” Global Environmental Change, 2022, 102413, ISSN 0959-3780,
  • Calvin K.V., A.C. Snyder, X. Zhao, and M.A. Wise. 2022. "Modeling Land Use and Land Cover Change: Using a Hindcast to Estimate Economic Parameters in gcamland v2.0." Geoscientific Model Development 15, no. 2:429-447. PNNL-SA-156913. doi:10.5194/gmd-15-429-2022
  • Mignone, Bryan K., Jonathan E. Huster, Sarah Torkamani, Patrick O’Rourke, and Marshall Wise (2022). “Changes in global land use and CO2 emissions from US bioethanol production: Sensitivity to crop type and natural lands protection.” Climate Change Economics. 2022.
  • Binsted, M., Iyer, G., Patel, P., Graham, N., Ou, Y., Khan, Z., Kholod, N., Narayan, K., Hejazi, M., Kim, S., Calvin, K., and Wise, M. (2022): “GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch: Integrated modeling of subnational U.S. energy, water, and land systems within a global framework.” Geoscientific Model Development 15, no. 6:2533–2559 (2022). [DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-2533-2022].


  • Cohen S., G.C. Iyer, M. Brown, J. Macknick, M.A. Wise, M.T. Binsted, and N. Voisin, et al. 2021. "How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study." Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 144. PNNL-SA-149703. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2021.111009
  • Graham N.T., G.C. Iyer, M.A. Wise, M. Hejazi, and T. Wild. 2021. "Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 12:Art. No. 124010. PNNL-SA-164375. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac3289
  • Khan Z., G.C. Iyer, P.L. Patel, S.H. Kim, M.I. Hejazi, C.D. Burleyson, and M.A. Wise. 2021. "Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments." Nature Communications 12, no. 1:Article No. 1643. PNNL-SA-150975. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21785-1
  • Li X., Y. Zhou, M.I. Hejazi, M.A. Wise, C.R. Vernon, G.C. Iyer, and W. Chen. 2021. "Global urban growth between 1870 and 2100 from integrated high resolution mapped data and urban dynamic modeling." Communications Earth & Environment 2. PNNL-SA-158560. doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00273-w
  • Ou Y., M.T. Binsted, G.C. Iyer, P.L. Patel, and M.A. Wise. 2021. "US state-level capacity expansion pathways with improved modeling of the power sector dynamics within a multisector model." Energy Strategy Reviews 38. PNNL-SA-161771. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2021.100739
  • Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz J., P. Kyle, C.W. Ramig, D. Tanner, J.E. Huster, and M.A. Wise. 2021. "Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model." Applied Energy 302. PNNL-SA-161004. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117580
  • Zhao X., K.V. Calvin, M.A. Wise, and G.C. Iyer. 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model." Economic Analysis and Policy 72. PNNL-SA-158709. doi:10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007
  • Zhao X., K.V. Calvin, M.A. Wise, P.L. Patel, A.C. Snyder, S.T. Waldhoff, and M.I. Hejazi, et al. 2021. "Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 10:104037. PNNL-SA-150812. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965


  • Calvin K.V., B. Mignone, H. Kheshgi, A.C. Snyder, P.L. Patel, M.A. Wise, and L.E. Clarke, et al. 2020. "Global market and economic welfare implications of changes in agricultural yields due to climate change." Climate Change Economics 11, no. 1:Article No. 2050005. PNNL-ACT-SA-10398. doi:10.1142/S2010007820500050
  • Daioglou V., M. Muratori, P. Lamers, S. Fujimori, A. Kitous, A. Koberle, and N.J. Bauer, et al. 2020. "Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade." Climatic Change 163. PNNL-SA-160440. doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02877-1
  • Edmonds J.A., C. Nichols, M. Adamantiades, J. Bistline, J.E. Huster, G.C. Iyer, and N. Johnson, et al. 2020. "Could congressionally mandated incentives lead to deployment of large-scale CO2 capture, facilities for enhanced oil recovery CO2 markets and geologic CO2 storage?." Energy Policy 146. PNNL-SA-154457. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111775
  • Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b
  • Rose S.K., N. Bauer, A. Popp, J. Weyant, S. Fujimori, P. Havlik, and M.A. Wise, et al. 2020. "An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change." Climatic Change 163. PNNL-SA-157648. doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02945-6
  • Snyder A.C., K.V. Calvin, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, P. Kyle, K. Narayan, and A. Di Vittorio, et al. 2020. "The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM." PLOS ONE 15, no. 8:e0237918. PNNL-SA-134943. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0237918
  • Zhao X., K.V. Calvin, and M.A. Wise. 2020. "The critical role of conversion cost and comparative advantage in modeling agricultural land use change." Climate Change Economics 11, no. 1:Article No. 2050004. PNNL-SA-142333. doi:10.1142/S2010007820500049


  • Calvin K.V., R.P. Link, and M.A. Wise. 2019. "gcamland v1.0 - An R Package for Modelling Land Use and Land Cover Change." Journal of Open Research Software 7, no. 1:31. PNNL-SA-135538. doi:10.5334/jors.233
  • Iyer G.C., M. Brown, S. Cohen, J. Macknick, P.L. Patel, M.A. Wise, and M.T. Binsted, et al. 2019. "Improving consistency among models of overlapping scope in multi-sector studies: The case of electricity capacity expansion scenarios." Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 116. PNNL-SA-134710. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.109416
  • Van De Ven D.P., J. Sampedro, F.X. Johnson, R. Bailis, A. Forouli, A. Nikas, and S. Yu, et al. 2019. "Integrated Policy Assessment and Optimiszation over Multiple Sustainable Development Goals in Eastern Africa." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 9:Article Number 094001. PNNL-ACT-SA-10426. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab375d
  • Wise M.A., P.L. Patel, Z. Khan, S.H. Kim, M.I. Hejazi, and G.C. Iyer. 2019. "Representing power sector detail and flexibility in a multi-sector model." Energy Strategy Reviews 26. PNNL-SA-138629. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2019.100411
  • Zhao X., K.V. Calvin, and M.A. Wise. 2019. "The critical role of conversion cost and comparative advantage in modeling agricultural land use change." In Proceedings of the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, June 19-21, 2019, Warsaw, Poland. West Lafayette, Indiana:Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). PNNL-SA-142313.


  • Feijoo F., G.C. Iyer, C. Avraam, S.A. Siddiqui, L.E. Clarke, S. Sankaranarayanan, and M.T. Binsted, et al. 2018. "The future of natural gas infrastructure development in the United states." Applied Energy 228. PNNL-SA-132268. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.037
  • Hodson E.L., M. Brown, S. Cohen, S. Showalter, M.A. Wise, F. Wood, and J. Caron, et al. 2018. "U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study." Energy Economics 73. PNNL-SA-133176. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.027


  • Bauer N., K.V. Calvin, J. Emmerling, O. Fricko, S. Fujimori, J. Hilaire, and J. Eom, et al. 2017. "Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector - Quantifying the Narratives." Global Environmental Change 42. PNNL-SA-115383. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006
  • Muratori M., C.M. Ledna, H.C. McJeon, P. Kyle, P.L. Patel, S.H. Kim, and M.A. Wise, et al. 2017. "Cost of Power or Power of Cost: a U.S. Modeling Perspective." Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 77. PNNL-ACT-SA-10131. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.055


  • Calvin K.V., M.A. Wise, P. Luckow, P. Kyle, L.E. Clarke, and J.A. Edmonds. 2016. "Implications of uncertain future fossil energy resources on bioenergy use and terrestrial carbon emissions." Climatic Change 136, no. 1:57-68. PNWD-SA-10003. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0923-0
  • Kim S.H., M.I. Hejazi, L. Liu, K.V. Calvin, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, and P. Kyle, et al. 2016. "Balancing Global Water Availability and Use at Basin Scale in an Integrated Assessment Model." Climatic Change 136, no. 2:217-231. PNNL-SA-112666. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1604-6
  • Muratori M., K.V. Calvin, M.A. Wise, P. Kyle, and J.A. Edmonds. 2016. "Global Economic Consequences of Deploying Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)." Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 9:095004. PNNL-ACT-SA-10154. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095004


  • Calvin K.V., B. Bond-Lamberty, J.A. Edmonds, M.I. Hejazi, S.T. Waldhoff, M.A. Wise, and Y. Zhou. 2015. "The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency." Climatic Change 131, no. 1:35-50. PNNL-SA-94788. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1026-7
  • Calvin K.V., S. Rose, M.A. Wise, H.C. McJeon, L.E. Clarke, and J.A. Edmonds. 2015. "Global Climate, Energy, and Economic Implications of International Energy Offsets Programs." Climatic Change 133, no. 4:583-596. PNWD-SA-10499. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1482-3
  • Kyle P., A.M. Thomson, M.A. Wise, and X. Zhang. 2015. "Assessment of the importance of spatial scale in long-term land use modelling of the Midwestern United States." Environmental Modelling & Software 72. PNNL-SA-106492. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.06.006


  • Calvin K.V., M.A. Wise, L.E. Clarke, J.A. Edmonds, A.D. Jones, and A.M. Thomson. 2014. "Near-term limits to mitigation: challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions." Energy Economics 42. PNNL-SA-92596. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.026
  • Hejazi M.I., J.A. Edmonds, L.E. Clarke, P. Kyle, E. Davies, V. Chaturvedi, and M.A. Wise, et al. 2014. "Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 8:2859-2883. PNNL-SA-103668. doi:10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014
  • Robinson S., H. van Meijl, D. Willenbockel, H. Valin, H. Valin, S. Fujimori, and T. Masui, et al. 2014. "Comparing Supply-Side Specifications in Models of Global Agriculture and the Food System." Agricultural Economics 45, no. 1:21-35. PNNL-SA-96182. doi:10.1111/agec.12087


  • Calvin K.V., M.A. Wise, D. Klein, D. McCollum, M. Tavoni, B. van der Zwaan, and D. Van Vuuren. 2013. "A Multi-Model Analysis of the Regional and Sectoral Roles of Bioenergy in Near- and Long-Term CO2 Emissions." Climate Change Economics 4, no. 4:Article No. 1340014. PNNL-SA-93292. doi:10.1142/S2010007813400149
  • Jones A.D., W.D. Collins, J.A. Edmonds, M.S. Torn, A.C. Janetos, K.V. Calvin, and A.M. Thomson, et al. 2013. "Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change." Journal of Climate 26, no. 11:3657-3670. PNNL-SA-92027. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00377.1
  • Tavoni M., E. Kriegler, T. Aboumahboub, K.V. Calvin, G. DeMaere, M.A. Wise, and D. Klein, et al. 2013. "The distribution of the major economies’ effort in the Durban platform scenarios." Climate Change Economics 4, no. 4:Article No. 1340009. PNNL-SA-93325. doi:10.1142/S2010007813400095


  • Luckow P., M.A. Wise, and J.J. Dooley. 2011. "Deployment of CCS Technologies across the Load Curve for a Competitive Electricity Market as a Function of CO2 Emissions Permit Prices." In 10th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, September 19-23, 2010, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Energy Procedia, edited by J Gale, C Hendriks, W Turkenberg, 4, 5762-5769. London:Elsevier. PNNL-SA-74465. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2011.02.572


  • Calvin K.V., J.A. Edmonds, and M.A. Wise. 2010. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world. PNNL-19462. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world
  • Thomson A.M., K.V. Calvin, L. Chini, L. Chini, G. Hurtt, J.A. Edmonds, and B. Bond-Lamberty, et al. 2010. "Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107, no. 46:19633-19638. PNNL-SA-68407.


  • Calvin K.V., J.A. Edmonds, B. Bond-Lamberty, L.E. Clarke, S.H. Kim, P. Kyle, and S.J. Smith, et al. 2009. "2.6: Limiting Climate Change to 450 ppm CO2 Equivalent in the 21st Century." Energy Economics 31, no. 2:S107-S120. PNNL-SA-66911.
  • Wise M.A., and J.J. Dooley. 2009. "The Value of Post-Combustion Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Technologies in a World with Uncertain Greenhouse Gas Emissions Constraints." International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 3, no. 1:39-48. PNNL-SA-61195. doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2008.06.012
  • Wise M.A., K.V. Calvin, A.M. Thomson, L.E. Clarke, B. Bond-Lamberty, R.D. Sands, and S.J. Smith, et al. 2009. "Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy." Science 324, no. 5931:1183-1186. PNNL-SA-63505.


  • Edmonds J.A., L.E. Clarke, J.P. Lurz, and M.A. Wise. 2008. "Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations with Incomplete International Cooperation." Climate Policy 8, no. 4:355-376. PNNL-SA-57554.
  • Edmonds J.A., L.E. Clarke, M.A. Wise, H.M. Pitcher, and S.J. Smith. 2008. "Implications for the USA of stabilization of radiative forcing at 3.4 W/m2." Climate Policy 8. PNNL-SA-57662.


  • Edmonds J.A., L.E. Clarke, M.A. Wise, and J.P. Lurz. 2007. International CO2 Stabilization Scenarios with Less-Than-Perfect “Where” and “When” Flexibility. PNNL-16932. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. International CO2 Stabilization Scenarios with Less-Than-Perfect “Where” and “When” Flexibility
  • Edmonds J.A., M.A. Wise, J.J. Dooley, S.H. Kim, S.J. Smith, P.J. Runci, and L.E. Clarke, et al. 2007. Global Energy Technology Strategy: Addressing Climate Change Phase 2 Findings from an international Public-Private Sponsored Research Program. College Park, Maryland:Battetlle Memorial Institute. PNNL-SA-51712.
  • Wise M.A., J.J. Dooley, R.T. Dahowski, and C.L. Davidson. 2007. "Modeling the Impacts of Climate Policy on the Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Geologic Storage across Electric Power Regions in the United States." International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 1, no. 2:261-270. PNWD-SA-7387. doi:10.1016/S1750-5836(07)00017-5
  • Wise M.A., J.J. Dooley, R.T. Dahowski, and C.L. Davidson. 2007. "Modelling the impacts of climate policy on the deployment of carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage across electric power regions in the United States." International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 1, no. 2:261-270. PNWD-SA-7449. doi:10.1016/S1750-5836(07)00017-5
  • Wise M.A., P. Sinha, S.J. Smith, and J.P. Lurz. 2007. Long-Term US Industrial Energy Use and CO2 Emissions. PNNL-17149. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Long-Term US Industrial Energy Use and CO2 Emissions


  • Edmonds J., T. Wilson, M. Wise, and J. Weyant. 2006. "Electrification of the Economy and CO2 Emissions Mitigation." Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 7, no. 3:175-203. PNWD-SA-6997.


  • Wise M.A., and J.J. Dooley. 2005. "Baseload and Peaking Economics and the Resulting Adoption of a Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage System for Electric Power Plants." In 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, edited by ES Rubin, DW Keith and CF Gilboy, 1, 303-311. Amsterdam:Elsevier. PNWD-SA-6521.


  • Dooley J.J., C.L. Davidson, M.A. Wise, and R.T. Dahowski. 2004. "ACCELERATED ADOPTION OF CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE WITHIN THE UNITED STATES ELECTRIC UTILITY INDUSTRY: THE IMPACT OF STABILIZING AT 450 PPMV AND 550 PPMV." In Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-7), edited by ES Rubin, DW Keith, CF Gilboy, 1, 891-900. Amsterdam:Elsevier. PNWD-SA-6519.