PNNL

Abstract

A key challenge for long-term power sector planning models is to simultaneously represent multisector interactions in response to broader technological, energy system, and societal factors, while considering sufficient structural details within the power sector. We incorporate improved representations of capacity markets, economic retirements, and power-plant age structure along with up-to-date technology assumptions into the power sector component of a well-established multi-sector model. We estimate that in a Reference scenario, national total electric capacity increases 81% (920 GW) from 2015 to 2050, corresponding to 26 GW per year on average. Compared with Reference, scenarios characterized by rapid technological change and a societal transition toward a low-carbon economy, total capacity investments further increase, with significant capacity investments in renewables across all states. Under a combination of these two drivers, capacity investments in renewable technologies triple, whereas investments in fossil capacity (coal, gas, and refined liquids) substantially reduce. The high renewable capacity investment is characterized by high investment in solar technologies for peak power demand and shifts from coal and gas technologies into gas and wind power for baseload demand. Rapid technological change and low-carbon societal transition also increase the magnitude of inter-state electricity trade for both net exporters and net importers.