Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a multi-hazard risk assessment framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. The identified framework elements are based on a systematic and comprehensive characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk. The framework is documented in PNNL-24673, Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk Informed Decision, dated December 2015 and provides the overarching technical basis for development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers. The report acknowledged and identified anticipated challenges in implementation of the framework. One key challenge that was anticipated during development of the framework was the uncertainty about the availability of suitably detailed domain models across different hazard categories and the difficulty in integrating those models. Another key anticipated challenge was the large number of possible scenarios associated with different potential combinations of asset failures and need for techniques that produce acceptably accurate estimates of risk. In this report, we discuss implementation we conducted to test the framework.
Revised: March 14, 2017 |
Published: October 28, 2016