PNNL

Abstract

This paper proposes a strategy for improving the computational efficiency of model inversion using the method of anchored distributions by “bundling” similar model parametrizations in the likelihood function. Inferring the likelihood function typically requires a large number of forward model simulations for each possible model parametrization; as a result, the process is quite expensive. To ease this prohibitive cost, we present an approximation for the likelihood function – called “bundling” – that relaxes the requirement for high quantities of forward model simulations. This approximation redefines the conditional statement of the likelihood function as the probability of sets of similar model parametrizations – “bundles” – replicating field measurements. To evaluate the effectiveness of these modifications, we compare the quality of predictions and computational cost of bundling relative to a baseline method of anchored distributions inversion of three-dimensional flow and transport model parameters. For our synthetic experiment, bundling achieved a 35% reduction in overall computational cost and had a limited negative on predicted probability distributions of the model parameters. Strategies for minimizing error in the bundling approximation, for enforcing similarity amongst the sets of model parametrizations, and for identifying convergence of the likelihood function are also presented.