PNNL

Abstract

Future fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and health impacts will be largely determined by factors such as energy use, fuel choices, emission controls, state and national policies, and demographics. In this study, a human-earth system model is used to estimate US state-level PM2.5 mortality costs from 2015 to 2050 considering current major air quality and energy regulations. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index is applied to quantify the contributions of socioeconomic and energy factors to future changes in PM2.5 mortality costs. National PM2.5 mortality costs are estimated to decrease by 25% from 2015 to 2050, primarily driven by decreases in energy intensity and decreases in PM2.5 mortality cost per unit consumption of electric sector coal and transportation liquids. These factors together contribute to 68% of the net decrease, primarily because of technology improvements and air pollutant emission regulations. Furthermore, the results suggest that states with greater population and economic growth, but with fewer clean energy resources, are more likely to face significant challenges in reducing future PM2.5 mortality costs. In contrast, states with larger projected decreases in mortality costs have smaller increases in population and per capita GDP and greater decreases in electric sector coal share and PM2.5 mortality cost intensity.