PNNL

Abstract

Global lung cancer mortality from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is expected to change significantly by 2050 compared to 2008. This is driven by changes in PAH emissions linked to land use, combustion technology, socioeconomic and air pollution abatement policies, as well as population growth. We integrate a global atmospheric chemistry model, a lung cancer risk model, and plausible future emissions trajectories of PAHs, and project that global PAH-associated lung cancer risk will continue to exceed human-health exposure limits set by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2050, and is dominated by the residential fuel consumption. Peaks in PAH-associated mortality shift from East Asia (57,000 deaths per year) in 2008 to South Asia (mostly India, 61,000-80,000) and Africa (20,000-46 27,000) by 2050. The death toll is projected to increase by 100–200% in Africa and South Asia from 2008 to 2050 due to rapid population growth, increasing agricultural waste burning, forest fires, and use of traditional biomass for cooking and heating, but decrease by 76% in East Asia due to socioeconomic and technologically driven advances. Climate change is likely to have minor effects on PAH lung cancer risk and related deaths compared to effects of emissions and population changes. Future policies, therefore, need to consider efficient combustion technologies that reduce air pollutant emissions, including incomplete combustion products such as PAH.