The 2015 Paris Agreement called for the nations pursue efforts to limit global average temperature change (GATC) to 1.5°C. While researchers have developed a substantial literature exploring transition pathways that limit GATC to 2°C, the same cannot be said for transition pathways limiting GATC to 1.5°C. In this paper we describe new community scenarios that limit year 2100 GATC to 1.5°C, though such scenarios temporarily exceed 1.5°C in earlier years. We report results from six modelling teams exploring transition pathways using five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)4,5. Some but not all SSPs were amenable to transition pathways to 1.5°C in 2100. Successful transitions were characterized by a rapid shift away from freely vented fossil-fuel use towards reduced energy use, large-scale non-emitting energy supplies, and carbon-dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Few transition pathways to 1.5°C were found for SSPs with strong global inequalities, a fossil-fuel intensive reference economy or challenges to climate mitigation.
Revised: May 18, 2018 |
Published: March 5, 2018
Citation
Rogelj J., A. Popp, K.V. Calvin, G. Luderer, J. Emmerling, D. Gernaat, and S. Fujimori, et al. 2018.Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C.Nature Climate Change 8.PNNL-ACT-SA-10229.doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3