PNNL

Abstract

A rapid energy transition, including phasing out unabated coal use, is needed to fulfill the Paris goal of limiting temperature change to well below 2°C. However, many countries are still actively planning, permitting, and constructing new coal plants. Here we quantify the emissions from existing and proposed coal generation and the changes necessary to stay on track with climate goals. Our analysis couples unit-level data with an integrated assessment model. We find that retirement of coal power plants must be accelerated compared to the historical average lifetime of 46 years. To achieve a 2°C goal, all proposed plants (totaling 600 GW) must be cancelled, and existing units (totaling 2,016 GW) shut down after a lifetime of 35 years. A 1.5°C goal requires reducing this age to 20 years, retiring 94% of today’s capacity by 2030. Allowing plants currently under construction to come online would necessitate a further five-year decrease in these lifetime limits.