PNNL

Abstract

High-resolution income projections for Washington state under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are essential data inputs for the Grid Operations, Decarbonization, Environmental and Energy Equity Platform (GODEEEP), which aims to model the US energy system interactions across scales under decarbonization and assess its impact on environmental and energy equity. To generate these projections, state-level GDP per capita projections were derived from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and then converted into projected annual household income. The resulting state-level income data were subsequently downscaled to the census block-level based on the Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) dataset from 2002 to 2015. Accuracy assessment was performed to evaluate the downscaled income data against the actual income data from LODES for the validation years between 2016 and 2019. The assessment demonstrated a good agreement between the downscaled income data and the LODES data, thereby validating the methodology employed. Income projections under different SSPs for Washington state can be utilized by a broader audience, including those involved in demographic analysis, economic research, urban planning, etc.