PNNL

Abstract

In spite of setbacks, substantial success has been achieved by the various nonproliferation efforts over the past 50 years. Because the pace of technology evolution remains high and the cost of entry to nuclear weapons technology is decreasing, improved approaches are critical if similar success is to be achieved over the next 20 years. Recent analyses have been published that provide a semi-quantitative assessment of proliferation risk, which can serve as the foundation for a meaningful quantitative approach to assessing proliferation risk. These methods represent an important step, but represent only one step in the work that must be achieved in the next few years. This paper presents perspectives on evaluating the merits of institutional arrangements and the role of design versus institutional features in proliferation prevention. It concludes by proposing methodology and quantitative approaches to be considered for evaluating proliferation-resistant measures in innovative reactor and fuel cycle technologies.