PNNL

Abstract

A Gaussian process (GP) emulator is applied to quantify the contribution of local and remote emissions of black carbon (BC) on the BC concentrations in different regions using a Latin Hypercube sampling strategy for emission perturbations in the offline version of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5) simulations. The source-receptor relationships are computed based on simulations constrained by a standard free-running CAM5 simulation and the ERA-Interim reanalysis product. The analysis demonstrates that the emulator is capable of retrieving the source-receptor relationships based on a small number of CAM5 simulations. Most regions are found susceptible to their local emissions. The emulator also finds that the source-receptor relationships retrieved from the model-driven and the reanalysis-driven simulations are very similar, suggesting that the simulated circulation in CAM5 resembles the assimilated meteorology in ERA-Interim. The robustness of the results provides confidence for applying the emulator to detect dose-response signals in the climate system.