February 15, 2024
Journal Article

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset


Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales where their impacts are most prominent. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 50,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with observations for spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale distributions of TC translation speeds, lifetime maximum intensities and intensification rates. Also, spatial variations in coastal frequency and precipitation for landfalling TCs are well-reproduced in RAFT. In summary, the synthetic TC database based on RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for robust assessment of TC wind and rainfall risk for the US coastal regions and other areas affected by Atlantic TCs.

Published: February 15, 2024


Xu W., K. Balaguru, D.R. Judi, J.R. Rice, L. Leung, and S.J. DiLeonardo. 2024. A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset. Scientific Data 11. PNNL-SA-185881. doi:10.1038/s41597-024-02952-7