Anthropogenically-driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature . The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt . We find that current trends in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the last 1000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25±0.05 (1s) °C per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous 1-2 millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.
Revised: May 22, 2015 |
Published: March 9, 2015
Citation
Smith S.J., J.A. Edmonds, C.A. Hartin, A. Mundra, and K.V. Calvin. 2015.Near-Term Acceleration In The Rate of Temperature Change.Nature Climate Change 5, no. 4:333-336.PNNL-SA-93187.doi:10.1038/nclimate2552