PNNL

Abstract

Because methane (CH4) is currently the second most important greenhouse gas, it is important to accurately quantify CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems. Different from many current modelling studies which focus on how CH4 emissions respond to a variety of environmental factors in land ecosystems, we analyzed how methane emitted from lands responded to sea-level increase (SLR) in this study. To do so, a large-scale surface water routing module was incorporated into our existing CH4 model and we designed an efficient simulation protocol to capture small variations in inundation extent due to SLR. Both the annual maximum inundation extent and CH4 emissions showed a steadily growing trend, increasing 1.21 × 105 km2 and 3.13 Tg CH4 /yr globally, respectively, in a 22-year SLR experiment during 1993-2014. Most of new inundation and methane source areas were located near rivers’ deltas and along the downstream reaches of rivers. The increase in inundation extent is primarily influenced by precipitation, channel geomorphic characteristics and topography of riverside area. The growth of CH4 emissions due to the SLR is largely determined by inundation extent but other factors such as temperature and carbon storage also played the important roles. Although the current SLR-induced increases in inundation extent and CH4 emissions only accounted for 1.0% and 1.3% of their global totals, they took 7.0% and 17.3% of the mean annual variability in both, respectively, during the study period. Considering SLR has a long-term but stable increasing trend, future SLR under potential climate change could play a more important role in evaluating dynamic of CH4 emissions.